France’s expected goals (xG) in official matches this season have reached 2.6 per game, with an 83% pass success rate in the final third and 0.9 xG per game generated in transition. Their high press PPDA has dropped as low as 9.1; Norway, meanwhile, average 1.8 xG at home, with set-piece xG accounting for 32% of their total, while their wing play efficiency ranks among the best in the competition. The key variable is that both sides have already secured qualification and are likely to rotate 5-6 regular starters — with substitutes competing for a better place in the knockout-stage pecking order, their attacking involvement will be significantly higher than in a standard season-ending fixture. That naturally weakens the priority on controlling possession and strengthens the focus on finishing chances. From a tactical standpoint, in a dead-rubber qualification match where there is little at stake, both teams’ defensive discipline tends to drop off naturally, with defensive coordination errors increasing by about 27% compared with normal games, and the number of attacking transitions rising by 19%. Neither side has a strong incentive to sit back and play for a draw, so the chances of an open, end-to-end contest are higher. Combined with the lack of cohesion in a rotated back line, the goal output is naturally well supported.