Listen up, guys — in this Group H showdown for top spot, I’m backing Spain to cover the -1 handicap. Let’s start with Spain’s strength: this is no joke, mate. Ranked No. 2 in the world, they are unbeaten in their last 10 matches with 6 wins and 4 draws. They average 2.3 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game, with elite quality at both ends of the pitch. De la Fuente’s 4-3-3 possession-based system is incredibly mature: they average nearly 70% possession, around 20 shots per game, and a shot conversion rate as high as 14%. That means they score once every seven shots — can you believe that efficiency? Now look at Uruguay. Bielsa’s team may look like they dominate possession, but in reality their attacking efficiency is ridiculously poor. In their first two matches, they had 27 shots but only 3 on target; over their last five first halves, they’ve averaged just 0.2 goals, starting far too slowly. Núñez is usually a beast at club level, but with the national team he tends to go missing, and his finishing really leaves a lot to be desired. On top of that, their back line is only average under pressure: they concede one goal for every 8.4 shots faced on average, and against Spain’s multi-pronged attack, it’s hard to see them holding out. Another key point: Uruguay must win to qualify, so they’ll have to push forward. Once they do, the space behind them will open up, and Spain’s counterattacks will be deadly. Don’t forget that counterattacking goals now account for 30% of Spain’s total — this isn’t the old Spain that only knew how to grind through possession attacks. With Lamine Yamal bursting down the wing, Uruguay’s full-backs simply won’t be able to keep up. Of course, there are risks. Spain have already qualified early, so they may rotate some starters, and their ability to break down deep defenses can be inconsistent — just look at their opening match against Cape Verde, when they fired 27 shots and scored none. But considering the gap in quality, the tactical matchup, and the motivation on both sides, I believe Spain are more likely to win by two goals or more.