In this Toulon Tournament clash between the youth sides, the goals line has sent a clear signal, and backing the over is worth considering.
On the handicap front, several bookmakers have uniformly opened at 3 goals, with the over priced in a low range between 0.75 and 0.97, showing clear intent to guard against it. Some bookmakers have pushed the over price down from an opening 0.97 to 0.70, while others have held firm at the 2.5-goal line, with the over smashed down to an ultra-low 0.55 to 0.60. Such a move to a shallow line with very low water is a classic tactic to lower the line and control liability, indicating that the bookmakers are strongly wary of at least 3 goals in the match. There are also books that have dropped from 3.5 goals back to 2.5, with the over price plunging from 1.20 to 0.60, an astonishing adjustment that likewise points toward the over.
From a team perspective, Venezuela U20 have seen the over land in 50% of their last 10 matches, while Japan U19 are close to 70% over in their last 10, and neither side plays conservatively. Venezuela U20 have had 2 of their 3 group matches finish with 4 or more total goals, while Japan U19 have seen every group match produce at least 3 total goals. Both teams have attacking quality, but both also have obvious defensive weaknesses, which is exactly the kind of setup that breeds high-scoring games. With less pressure in the knockout placement stage, the over is the side to favor.