From a handicapping perspective, several bookmakers initially opened the total at 2.5 goals, with the over priced in the medium-to-high range of 0.91 to 1.02. As the match approached, the line collectively moved back, with most operators dropping from 2.5 goals to 2/2.5 goals. After the adjustment, the over price did not fall significantly, staying in the 0.90 to 0.96 range overall, suggesting that bookmakers were cooling their expectations for a high-scoring game. More notably, among the companies that held firm at the 2.5-goal line, the over price surged from an early low to the extremely high 1.10 to 1.20 range, creating significant payout pressure. This combination of a line drop and a high over price clearly points toward the under. On the team side, Mexico have seen the over land in only 30% of their last 10 matches, and their style in World Cup finals tends to be cautious. In their last five games, four finished with no more than two total goals. South Africa have seen the over in 50% of their last 10 matches, but against stronger opponents they often prioritize defense, and their attacking threat is limited. The two sides drew 1-1 at the 2010 World Cup, in a match that was not particularly open. In the opening round of a World Cup group stage, both teams are likely to play it safe and will not take unnecessary risks. With the line retreating and the over price soaring, the under is worth backing.