It is a crucial qualification showdown in which Ukraine will look to take points at home to avoid slipping in the standings, while Iceland will aim to extend their head-to-head dominance. Ukraine’s narrow loss to Iceland in the past shows they can stay competitive in tightly contested matches, even though their form has been poor. Iceland’s consistent slim wins over Ukraine suggest they do not have the ability to completely overwhelm the hosts, and their away form also limits their control. We lean toward Ukraine +1.5, though without full confidence, as Iceland could still produce an attacking burst.