Forma (30)
[Picks]Free Norwegian Match Over/Under Tip
09h ago
Mais/Menos07/02 16:001. Divisão Norueguesa
PendenteLyn Oslo
Åsane Fotball
Mais-
Line3
Menos-
This crucial relegation battle in Norway's First Division has seen the movement in the goals line send a clear signal: the over is well worth backing.
First, look at the handicap movement. In the opening stage, several bookmakers set the line at 3 goals, with the over priced in the low range of 0.73 to 0.89. As kickoff approached, the line was pushed up further, with some operators moving from 3 goals to 3/3.5 goals, while the over price remained firm. More importantly, some bookmakers held firm at 2.5 goals, with the over odds slashed to an extremely low 0.48. This kind of shallow line with ultra-low odds is a classic tactic to reduce liability by lowering the line, showing that bookmakers are strongly guarding against at least 3 goals in the match. Others even retreated from 3.5 goals, yet the over price was still kept at a very low level. The overall movement from the opening line to the in-play line clearly points toward the over.
From a fundamentals perspective, the home team has seen the over land in 5 of its last 10 matches, while 4 of its 7 home games have produced 3 or more total goals, reflecting an open style of play. The away side has also seen 3 of its last 6 matches go over, and it is conceding nearly 2 goals per game on average defensively. In the last 6 meetings between the two sides, 3 have gone over 2.5 goals. With both teams needing points in this relegation showdown, the tempo is unlikely to be dull, making the over the preferred angle.
