Although both teams have already secured their places in the knockout stage, the race for top spot in the group remains unresolved — France only need a draw to finish first, while Norway must win to overtake them. That rules out the usual assumption of a “nothing to play for, cautious stalemate,” as both sides have a clear attacking incentive. Based on the offensive and defensive benchmarks from the first two rounds of this group stage, both teams rank among the tournament’s strongest attacks: Norway have scored 7 goals and conceded 3 across two matches, with an average expected goals (xG) of 1.8 and a shot conversion rate as high as 19.6%. Haaland has scored 4 goals in two games, with his finishing inside the box firing on all cylinders. France have scored 6 goals and conceded just 1 in two matches, with an average xG of 2.1 and possession consistently above 58%. Their scoring methods through positional attacks and wide play are varied and reliable, and both teams’ baseline goal expectation is already close to the 3-goal threshold. Tactical setup and rotation should further increase the goal expectation: in pursuit of victory, Norway are certain to maintain a high press and aggressive wide attacking approach rather than sitting deep. Even if France make a moderate rotation of 3-4 players, substitute forwards looking to improve their standing for the knockout rounds will be even more eager to impress going forward, while the reduced cohesion caused by defensive rotation should raise the error rate by about 27% compared with a full-strength lineup, creating more scoring chances for both counterattacks and sustained attacks. In addition, the Golden Boot battle between Mbappé and Haaland will also push both elite strikers to put in even more attacking effort, further raising the ceiling for goals.