Listen up, lads — for this match, don’t be fooled by Belgium’s reputation. The Red Devils of today are not the same team they used to be. I’m backing goals here, over 3.25.
First, let’s talk about Belgium. The golden generation has long since faded, mate. Kevin De Bruyne can still pick a pass, but Lukaku is so bulky now he can barely run. Across the last two World Cups, he has scored just 2 goals in 5 matches, and one of them was an own goal. In the last game against Iran, they bombarded the opposition and still couldn’t score, with a shockingly poor shot conversion rate. Defensively, it’s even more absurd — young center-backs Faes and Debast have basically zero big-match experience, they turn like snails, and once the high line is targeted, it falls apart instantly.
Now look at New Zealand. Don’t assume they’re just pushovers — they can really do something in attack. Wood is a real aerial threat; as soon as he plants himself in the box, Belgium’s two slow-turning center-backs simply won’t be able to cope. On top of that, New Zealand’s set pieces and direct long-ball play are especially dangerous. They scored 1 against Egypt in their last match and 2 against Iran, so their attacking firepower is definitely not weak.
The key here is that both teams have to attack. Belgium must win to qualify, so they’ll have to come out and play. With the high line pushed so far up, there will be huge space behind it — enough to run horses through. As for New Zealand, they don’t have much pressure anyway. With Wood up top as a target, they’ll go for it when they can, and if not, they’ll just try to smash something in from a set piece. Neither defense looks reliable, and when one side attacks and the other defends poorly, goals usually follow.
Another point: New Zealand have gone 13 straight matches without a clean sheet, and their back line looks like it’s made of paper. Belgium’s attack may be poor, but against a defense like this, surely they can score a few, right?
Of course, in football anything can happen. If Belgium suddenly lose their nerve again, or New Zealand decide to sit deep and defend, this could still land right on the line. But considering both teams’ defensive quality, motivation, and tactical styles, I believe the over 3.25 goals line has a better chance of being cleared.