From a betting perspective, several bookmakers have uniformly set the line at 3/3.5 goals, with the odds for the over concentrated in the high range of 0.92 to 1.04, and some even approaching 1.04. With such a high threshold, the over price is still being pushed to elevated levels, which suggests bookmakers are not very confident that the total goals will go beyond three. Even more noteworthy is that a few bookmakers have stuck with a 2.5-goal line, while the over odds have been compressed to an ultra-low 0.44. At first glance, this shallow line with ultra-low odds seems favorable to the over, but in reality it is using very low prices to attract money toward the over, with the real intention of easing pressure on the under.
Looking at the fundamentals, the home side has produced an over rate of only 40% in its last 10 matches, and in 3 of its last 6 games the total goals did not exceed 2. The away side has an over rate of 50% in its last 10 matches, but its away scoring efficiency has been relatively poor, netting just 7 goals in 6 away games. The two teams played out a dull 0-0 draw in their league meeting earlier this season, with the match being extremely uneventful. In their last 10 head-to-head encounters, the under rate has been above 70%, and these meetings are often tight and cagey. In a cup tie decided by a single match, both sides are likely to prioritize caution, so the under is worth backing.