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Zoe M. Pfeiffer

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[Picks]Group Stage: Portugal vs Uzbekistan Over/Under Free Pick

4928d ago

Más/Menos06/23 17:00Copa Mundial de la FIFA

Derrota

Portugal

Portugal
FT--
Uzbekistán

Uzbekistán

Más-
Line3/3,5
Menos-
In the betting market, several bookmakers opened with a line of 3 goals, with the over priced in the 0.87 to 0.99 range. As the match approached, the line was collectively raised, with most bookmakers moving from 3 goals to 3/3.5 goals. After the adjustment, the over price not only failed to come down, but instead surged from the low-to-mid range at the opening to a very high 1.00 to 1.05 level. A line increase paired with a sharp rise in the over price suggests that the bookmakers are not truly expecting a high-scoring game; rather, they are using a higher threshold and elevated juice to balance the action. Some bookmakers held firm at 3.5 goals, with the over remaining at an extremely high 1.20, also showing little protection against the over. Others moved from 2.5 goals to 3/3.5 goals, while the over price jumped from 0.74 to 1.04, a massive increase. From a fundamental perspective, Portugal drew 1-1 with the Democratic Republic of the Congo in their opening match, with only two goals scored in total. Cristiano Ronaldo was relatively quiet, and the team’s efficiency in breaking down opponents is a concern. Their over rate in the last 10 matches is only 30 percent, and their attack has not been particularly explosive. Uzbekistan lost 1-3 to Colombia in the opener; they do have some scoring ability, but their methods of finding the net are limited against stronger sides. The second round of the World Cup group stage is crucial for qualification, so both teams are likely to be more cautious. With the line moving up but the over price staying high, the under is the side worth following.
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