Tunisia’s defensive display in the opening round was nothing short of disastrous. Against Sweden, they allowed just four shots on target but conceded five goals in total, including an own goal, with the back line repeatedly making basic mistakes under high pressure. Goalkeeper Chammakh finished the match with a rating of only 3.4, failing to save any of the five shots he faced, and both his positioning and judgment off the line were seriously problematic. Against Japan’s more refined possession play and faster attacking-to-defensive transitions, Tunisia’s defense will be under even greater pressure than in the first round. The center-back pairing of Rekik and Talbi is relatively slow to turn, which is exactly the kind of weakness Japan’s quick and mobile attackers can exploit. Japan held the Netherlands to a 2-2 draw in the opening round, and the performance was more convincing than the result itself. Trailing by two goals, Japan equalized through midfield adjustments and an increase in pace down the flanks, showing excellent tactical execution and mental resilience. Daichi Kamada and Keito Nakamura both earned a 7.7 rating in the first match and were Japan’s most reliable attacking outlets. Although Takefusa Kubo is unavailable due to injury, Japan’s midfield depth remains strong—Yuito Ito, Ritsu Doan, and Daichi Kamada are all capable of creating chances in the final third. In this match, the opening Asian handicap line started at Tunisia +0.5 and then surged to +1.0 close to kick-off, while the away team’s water level rose from a low 0.80-0.85 to a mid-to-high 0.88-0.96. A direct move from half a goal to a full goal is essentially a two-step jump in the line, reflecting the bookmakers’ rapidly growing confidence in Japan. Although the water level has also risen, Japan’s elevated line and high return rate actually help suppress the market, preventing the away side from becoming overbought. If the bookmakers were not optimistic about Japan, keeping the line at +0.5 with a low water level to absorb bets would have been the more reasonable move. In the European odds market, the away win has been cut sharply from the 1.85-1.90 range to 1.35-1.40, the draw has drifted up from 3.30-3.40 to 4.50-5.00, and the home win has surged from 4.00-4.20 to 6.50-7.00. The bookmakers have almost completely ruled out Tunisia taking any points. Overall, Japan’s technical superiority and tactical discipline are clearly better than Tunisia’s. While Kubo’s absence does affect their attacking creativity, Japan’s overall possession-based system and counterattacking ability are still more than enough to exploit the flaws in Tunisia’s back line. A Japan victory in this match looks highly likely.