In the second round of Group C at the World Cup, Brazil face Haiti in Philadelphia. After being held to a 1-1 draw by Morocco in the opening round, Brazil’s qualification picture has suddenly become tense — if they fail to win this match, they will be under pressure heading into the final round against Scotland. Haiti lost 1-0 narrowly to Scotland in their opener, but their defensive performance was far better than expected. Neymar’s absence is the key variable in this match. Without him, Brazil lack the only player in attack who can consistently tear open a compact defense. Against Morocco in the first round, Vinicius and Raphinha were repeatedly neutralized on the flanks by covering defenders, while Paquetá’s playmaking in the middle lacked penetration. Brazil finished with just six shots in the entire match, only two of which were on target. Against a Haiti side likely to sit deep across the board, it will be difficult for that attacking efficiency to improve meaningfully. In their opener against Scotland, Haiti allowed only seven shots all match and were not beaten until the 89th minute. Their discipline and concentration at the back have already been tested in real competition. The movement in the handicap line deserves close reading. The opening line had Brazil at -3, but ahead of kick-off some bookmakers dropped it to -2.5/-3, while the price on the favored side has consistently stayed above 0.90 at a relatively high level and has not been pushed down into the low-water range below 0.85. Against a team like Haiti, a -3 line would normally reflect the clear gap in quality, but the drop in the line and the higher price suggest the market does not have strong confidence in Brazil winning by a big margin. If Brazil were strongly backed to win by three goals or more, a more logical move would be to keep the line at -3 while lowering the price, rather than cutting the line and allowing payout costs to rise. Historical head-to-head data must be interpreted with caution. Brazil once beat Haiti 7-1 at the 2016 Copa América, but Neymar started that match and contributed one goal and two assists, while Brazil produced more than 20 shots. This time, Brazil are without Neymar, and their attacking display against Morocco in the opener already showed that this side is far less efficient at breaking down deep defenses without a central creator than it was back then. Haiti have nothing to lose psychologically. As World Cup debutants, their one-goal defeat in the opener already exceeded expectations. Against Brazil, they do not need possession, and they do not need to attack. They only need to repeat the defensive approach they used against Scotland in the first round — compress the space, limit touches inside the penalty area, and wait for set pieces and counterattacking chances. Brazil’s set-piece threat is real, but relying on set pieces alone to win by three goals or more is extremely difficult. Overall, Brazil are very likely to win, but covering the handicap will not be easy. Neymar’s absence, Haiti’s defensive resilience in the opener, and the market’s downward move in the handicap all point in the same direction. Brazil’s goal tally is likely to be in the 2-3 range, making it hard to break through the line. Asian handicap recommendation: Haiti +2.5/3 (or +3). Score prediction: 2-0, 3-0.