In the opening match of World Cup Group L, England face Croatia in Dallas. This is a dress rehearsal for the battle for top spot in the group — from the overall strength of the section, the only two teams capable of advancing directly are these two, and the result of this head-to-head clash in the first round will very likely decide who finishes first.
England's strength on paper is beyond doubt. They went through the qualifiers with eight wins from eight, scoring 22 goals and conceding none, with a steel-strong defense that was almost flawless. The midfield trio of Bellingham, Rice and Anderson ranks among the best in Europe in terms of running power and physicality. Up front, the attacking line featuring Kane, Saka and Rashford has more than enough firepower, so there is no need to worry about their scoring ability.
But England do have their concerns. Tuchel's tactical idea is to let Rice and Bellingham dominate possession, even at the expense of attacking players such as Palmer and Foden. This system worked smoothly against weaker opponents in the qualifiers, but against a team like Croatia, who are experienced and highly disciplined tactically, the battle for control in midfield will determine the direction of the match.
Croatia's biggest weakness is defense. They have conceded in each of their last six matches in all competitions, letting in 10 goals in total, with clear shortcomings in defensive stability and physical duels. Against an England side with immense physical impact, this back line is indeed under huge pressure. Modric is set for his final World Cup dance, and the 37-year-old remains the team's metronome, but the age profile of Croatia's midfield is undeniably on the older side.
However, what cannot be overlooked is Croatia's resilience on the World Cup stage. In the 2018 semifinal, it was Croatia who knocked England out 2-1 after extra time. Across 11 meetings in history, England have the edge with 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, but Croatia have never been beaten by England by more than two goals in regular time.
In the handicap market, the opening line had England favored by one goal, but it has since been adjusted down to half a goal to one, while the home side's water level has risen from a low position to the 0.92-0.95 range, a medium-to-high level. With the line being lowered and the price rising, confidence in England winning and covering is not particularly strong.
Overall, England are more likely to win, but Croatia's ability to withstand pressure and their tournament experience should not be underestimated. This match is worth backing the visitors to stay within the handicap.
Asian handicap recommendation: Croatia +0.5/1.